The Financial Times - Mood change in Washington to hurt global bank stocks

The Financial Times article by Richard Bernstein. Originally published in The Financial Times on July 27, 2011.

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First Trust Introduces The Richard Bernstein Advisors Quality Income Portfolio

First Trust Portfolios, L.P.  ("First Trust") announced today the anticipated launch on July 25th of the Richard Bernstein Advisors Quality Income Portfolio, a new unit investment trust ("UIT") focused on income and total return. First Trust will serve as the sponsor of the UIT.

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Widespread Tail Risk Concerns Seem Bullish

Investors tend to be overly bullish at a stock market peak, and are overconfident regarding the economic and profits outlooks. There is typically no widespread desire to hedge risk, and the subsequent bear market comes as a surprise.

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The Disconnect Continues

Our strategies focus on finding "disconnects" between investor sentiment and the reality of improvement or deterioration in fundamentals. The current disconnect regarding the United States and the emerging markets still appears to us to be quite significant.

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Why Smaller Banks are Atractive

We continue to prefer smaller, US domestic banks to larger, multinational banks. A backdrop of anemic yet improving US employment and stabilizing housing markets will likely benefit domestic lenders, but the continued deflation of the global credit bubble could continue to hurt the growth prospects for global financial institutions. Although the vast majority of risks related to the deflation of the US credit bubble seem well-known, investors still appear to be underestimating the risks of credit deflation in Europe and in the Emerging Markets. It sems as though the managements of global financial institutions are making the same forecasting error.

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All That Glitters

It is hard to find anything in the current financial landscape that has caught investors' attention as much as gold. We were proponents of gold at times over the last decade. However, the rationale for investing in gold has changed in the last three years. The story was a fundamental one, but today's general enthusiasm seems more emotionally-based.

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MarketWatch - Five Money Moves one China Basher is Making Now

MarketWatch's interview with Richard Bernstein about his views on small caps, Europe and emerging markets. Originally published in MarketWatch on May 19, 2011.

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You should worry about EM inflation. Not US Inflation.

Investors seem overly concerned about US inflation. Both market-derived expectations and actual rates of US inflation remain very subdued, yet we are consistently asked about inflation and whether our investment strategies are adequately structured for high US inflation.

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