The REAL Great Rotation

The phrase "Great Rotation" has come to mean a sizeable shift in asset allocations from bonds to stocks. We, too, believe that stocks are likely to secularly outperform bonds, but we don't think that is the "great rotation" about which investors should be concerned.  

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Financial Times - Forget EMs, US investors should think local

The consensus in the US is that investors should focus on large-cap, multinational companies that offer exposure to global growth. Few have noticed the secular shift in performance that is under way in which smaller, more domestically focused companies are outperforming.

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The Dollar isn't the Peso anymore

Many years ago, we wrote a report called "The US Peso". At the time, investors were generally quite bullish on the US dollar based on the strength of the funds flows into the US to buy technology stocks and the advantages a strong dollar offered US consumers. We felt that such euphoria was misplaced, and that the US dollar was likely to weaken over the ensuing years.

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Reversing Quantitative Easing

The Fed has clearly raised the issue of reversing their policy of quantitative easing, and investors have become more anxious. However, one should remember that the Fed is generally a lagging indicator, and that a tightening of monetary policy is unlikely so long as the overall economic growth and inflation remain anemic.

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80's Bull Redux

Investors often remember bull markets as days of wine and roses. However, those fond memories are largely based on the latter stages of a bull market during which investors are convinced that there is indeed a bull market underway and that it will never end. They seem to forget that the majority of a bull market is typically characterized by fear and indecision. 

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The Year in Review: 2012

Politicians crave the spotlight, but it is unfortunate that investors watch the show. 2012, like 2011, was another year in which Washington theatrics scared investors. We think there are several important points to consider when reviewing 2012 performance, and when structuring portfolios for 2013. 

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This Is What Bull Markets Are All About

Investors have the impression that bull markets are days of wine and roses. However, nothing could be farther from the truth.  Bull markets are periods of fear.  This becomes quite obvious when one examines the valuation and sentiment data associated with the 1982, 1990, 1995 and 2003 bull markets. 

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Morningstar - Bernstein: A Lot to Like in U.S. Assets

People have underestimated the risks outside the U.S. and overestimated the risks in the U.S.

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