7.6.18

Overheating Ahead

Investors appear to remain oblivious to how high inflation already is in the US relative to inflation rates around the world. With Washington DC policy overtly pro-inflation, investors need to be positioned for the overheating ahead.

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6.7.18

Ignore the Tweet, Invest for the Meat

Investing based on short term-market gyrations and noise from the 24/7 business news cycle rarely drives alpha. At RBA, we’d rather invest dispassionately based on market fundamentals and focus on longer time horizons.  Remember to ignore the Tweet and invest for the meat.  

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5.10.18

Unicorns exist only when money is free

When the Fed instituted ZIRP, investors were overenthusiastic to invest in the next great Unicorn. Now that rates are rising and money is no longer free, investors are beginning to realize that rational investing and positive cash flows trump hype and speculation.

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4.18.18

Cryptocurrencies: It's just Candy Crush

If the only difference between playing for digital coins in mobile games and mining for cryptocurrencies is the ability to openly trade the coins for goods and services, one should wonder if the crypto frenzy is worth the hype and speculation. We think not.

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3.14.18

Income + Tariffs + Inflation = Underperformance

Many income-oriented investors may not be appropriately positioned for the current market environment, with increasing inflation and looming tariffs poised to lead to significant underperformance.

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2.9.18

Gee, this time isn't different

Successful investing in this cycle has depended largely on following the business cycle and ignoring the myriad of fears. As the economy enters a late-cycle phase, investors need to recognize the characteristics of a late-cycle environment and how to accordingly position portfolios.

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1.18.18

Bonds' day of reckoning

In the 9th year of this bull market, investors remain overweight bonds in an environment poised to drastically limit fixed income returns. It’s time to avoid bonds’ day of reckoning.

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12.12.17

Some thoughts on 2018

2017 turned out to be a better year for the stock market than most investors surmised. For 2018, we yet again see investors avoiding one of the longest post-war bull markets in history and continuing to ignore the fundamentals driving markets higher.

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