The REAL Great Rotation

 

6.4.13

The REAL Great Rotation

The phrase "Great Rotation" has come to mean a sizeable shift in asset allocations from bonds to stocks. We, too, believe that stocks are likely to secularly outperform bonds, but we don't think that is the "great rotation" about which investors should be concerned.  

Download PDF

Financial Times-Forget EMs, US investors should think local

 

5.14.13

Financial Times - Forget EMs, US investors should think local

The consensus in the US is that investors should focus on large-cap, multinational companies that offer exposure to global growth. Few have noticed the secular shift in performance that is under way in which smaller, more domestically focused companies are outperforming.

Download PDF

Reversing Quantitative Easing

 

4.15.13

Reversing Quantitative Easing

The Fed has clearly raised the issue of reversing their policy of quantitative easing, and investors have become more anxious. However, one should remember that the Fed is generally a lagging indicator, and that a tightening of monetary policy is unlikely so long as the overall economic growth and inflation remain anemic.

Download PDF

The Dollar isn't the Peso anymore

 

5.10.13

The Dollar isn't the Peso anymore

Many years ago, we wrote a report called "The US Peso". At the time, investors were generally quite bullish on the US dollar based on the strength of the funds flows into the US to buy technology stocks and the advantages a strong dollar offered US consumers. We felt that such euphoria was misplaced, and that the US dollar was likely to weaken over the ensuing years.

Download PDF

80's Bull Redux

 

3.4.13

80's Bull Redux

Investors often remember bull markets as days of wine and roses. However, those fond memories are largely based on the latter stages of a bull market during which investors are convinced that there is indeed a bull market underway and that it will never end. They seem to forget that the majority of a bull market is typically characterized by fear and indecision. 

Download PDF