EM the growth story

 

11.6.13

EM - The Growth Story That Isn't

We remain very concerned about emerging market stocks and bonds. The recent outperformance of EM stocks is again luring investors to once again touch the hot stove. Emerging markets seem to have some significant structural and cyclical issues about which investors seem unaware or seem to be ignoring.

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A Special Note

 

10.10.13

A Special Note on Potential Government Debt Default

We find it incredible that the government is, once again, on the verge of a default on US debt. Although we doubt that the US will actually default, it is unfathomable that elected officials would even consider such an event. Worse yet, some officials apparently believe that a default might benefit the US.

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Charts for the Beach

 

8.9.13

Charts for the Beach

Our basic positions are now famous (or infamous). We continue to favor US assets and to shield our portfolios from the on-going and broad problems in the emerging markets. In the spirit of August, we forego significant text this month to present a series of charts that outline a few of the opportunities and risks we see in the global markets.

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Global Sea Change Continues

 

9.26.13

Global Sea Change Continues

Our long-standing theme has been that the US stock market is again a growth market. Whereas investors generally still believe that the emerging markets are a growth story, the data increasingly suggest that growth is now predominantly in the developed markets. When it comes to quality, transparency, and consistency of growth, the US seems to stand above other markets.

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Japan

 

8.5.13

Japan - The Land of the Rising Stock Market

We have been ardent bulls on the Japanese stock market since last Fall. We were quite alone when we first invested for this theme, but that changed quickly as the Japanese stock market rose. Today, everyone is talking about Japan, and the Japanese stock market's daily volatility has increased as leveraged, short-term traders now dominate daily results.

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