10 for '14

12.4.13

10 for '14

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to the coming year. Here are our themes for 2014.

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Like a Shakespearean Script


12.4.13

Like a Shakespearean Script

Shakespearean plays follow a pattern. The underlying plots and storylines change from play to play, but the five-act construction is a common overlap. Market cycles tend to follow a similar pattern cycle after cycle. Like the different plots in various Shakespearean plays, the catalysts that begin and end each cycle, and the events during the cycle are always different. However, market cycles seem to follow a script and, so far, this cycle seems to be following the script almost perfectly.

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A Special Note

 

10.10.13

A Special Note on Potential Government Debt Default

We find it incredible that the government is, once again, on the verge of a default on US debt. Although we doubt that the US will actually default, it is unfathomable that elected officials would even consider such an event. Worse yet, some officials apparently believe that a default might benefit the US.

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EM the growth story

 

11.6.13

EM - The Growth Story That Isn't

We remain very concerned about emerging market stocks and bonds. The recent outperformance of EM stocks is again luring investors to once again touch the hot stove. Emerging markets seem to have some significant structural and cyclical issues about which investors seem unaware or seem to be ignoring.

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Global Sea Change Continues

 

9.26.13

Global Sea Change Continues

Our long-standing theme has been that the US stock market is again a growth market. Whereas investors generally still believe that the emerging markets are a growth story, the data increasingly suggest that growth is now predominantly in the developed markets. When it comes to quality, transparency, and consistency of growth, the US seems to stand above other markets.

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